Taux de chômage et réédition de la crise de 29

Via Daily Kos. Le taux de chômage atteint pendant les années 30 (25%) est souvent mis en avant pour refléter le fait que ce que nous vivons n'a rien à voir avec la grande dépression. Il y a un problème cependant, la méthode de calcul du taux de chômage a changé du tout au tout. En appliquant les méthodes de l'époque, le taux de chômage aujourd'hui ne serait pas de 7,2% mais de 16,5% selon John Williams de Reuters.

Most economists ridicule the idea that what we're experiencing now could ever become anything like the Great Depression. And, says Reuters, they all point to the same statistic: 25% of Americans were out of work in the worst of the 1930s and we're nowhere near that disaster.

But the definition of joblessness has changed since then. Not just in 1994, but also under Lyndon Johnson in the late 1960s, when discouraged workers out of job for more than a year were erased from the statistics. Out of work, out of luck, and out of sight.

Figures collected for Reuters by John Williams, from the electronic newsletter Shadowstats.com, suggest that, while we are not [at Great Depression levels yet], the comparison is not as outlandish as it might initially seem.

By his count, if unemployment were still tallied the way it was in the 1930s, today's jobless rate would be closer to 16.5 percent -- more than double the stated rate.

"I expect that unemployment in the current downturn, which will be particularly deep and protracted, eventually will rival, if not top, the 25 percent seen in the Great Depression," Williams said.